2023
Grand City Properties: A Value Play In The German Real Estate Market
November 6 2023
The article presents an investment thesis for Grand City Properties (OTCPK:GRNNF, OTCPK:GRDDY), a German real estate company specializing in residential apartments. The author highlights the recent depreciation in the company’s shares and attributes it to the broader decline in the German real estate sector. Drawing parallels with a previous recommendation on Vonovia, the author argues that Grand City Properties, despite having better debt metrics and strong operational performance, is undervalued. The investment thesis is grounded in macroeconomic tailwinds, particularly a supply/demand imbalance in the German rental market and increasing rents lagging behind inflation. The author suggests that Grand City Properties is a “Strong Buy,” anticipating a 50-100% increase in its share price once the interest rate environment becomes favorable. However, the article acknowledges risks such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential write-downs in property values. The conclusion emphasizes the positive long-term dynamics of rising property prices and rents in the German market.
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Tesla: Why I Continue My Short Bet
October 26 2023
The author initiated a short position on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in July due to perceived risks that could impact the stock price. These risks include further reduction in profitability, growth falling below expectations, a prolonged FSD beta, delays with the Cybertruck release, and dependence on government subsidies. The article provides an update on each risk, highlighting Tesla’s Q3 results showing reduced growth and lower margins, concerns about profitability, and potential challenges in meeting growth targets. The author expresses skepticism about Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities and raises issues with the Cybertruck release. The article concludes that despite recent adjustments, Tesla’s shares still have more downside potential than upside, supporting the decision to maintain the short position. The short bet involves the use of Put options to limit losses, with the author currently up around 120%.
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Vonovia: Potentially Rewarding Due To Macro Tailwinds
October 16 2023
The investment thesis highlights the recent share price decline of Vonovia (OTCPK:VONOY) (OTCPK:VNNVF) in the German real estate sector, contrasting it with a contrarian investment approach. The author initially invested in various German real estate companies and now focuses on Vonovia, Grand City Properties (OTCPK:GRNNF), and Aroundtown (AANFF). The analysis delves into the supply/demand imbalance in the German rental market, emphasizing Vonovia’s advantageous position. The article covers factors such as housing construction challenges, population growth, tenant protections, and the potential for further rent increases. Despite breaching certain debt key performance indicators, Vonovia’s management is deemed to have handled the downturn reasonably well. The article concludes with a positive long-term outlook for Vonovia, anticipating a share price increase to 30-40 euros over the next one to two years, contingent on an improved interest rate environment.
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ams-OSRAM Is A Turnaround Candidate, Shares Could Double Or Even Multiply
September 25 2023
The ams-OSRAM investment thesis revolves around the company’s attempt to recover from a troubled past. Following a challenging merger, the company has experienced significant difficulties, causing its stock price to plummet. However, with a new CEO and strategy in place, ams-OSRAM aims to regain profitability by focusing on LEDs and sensor chips for the automotive, industry, and medical sectors. The target is a 15% EBIT margin and 6-10% annual revenue growth. If executed successfully, the stock could potentially double within one to three years. Still, there are execution risks, and the company’s substantial debt and dependence on the semiconductor industry pose potential challenges. Therefore, ams-OSRAM is considered a speculative buy, with the expectation that its low valuation offers growth potential.
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BMW: Strong Financial Results And EV Transition, But No Growth Prospects
September 14 2023
BMW Group achieved strong financial results in 2022 and Q1-Q2 2023, with a focus on its electric vehicle (EV) transition. While BMW’s ordinary shares saw a recent 7% decline, the forward-looking P/E ratio is now below 6, offering a value proposition. The company is making progress in its EV efforts, with the share of all-electric vehicles in deliveries rising to 14.1%. BMW raised its 2023 guidance and maintains a solid dividend yield above 7%. However, limited growth potential and a preference for Mercedes due to its more ambitious EV strategy are noted, and a hold recommendation is advised.
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Why I Decided To Short Tesla
September 7 2023
The article questions the high valuation of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and outlines potential risks that could lead to a drop in its share price. These risks include Tesla’s lower profitability compared to other automakers, challenges in maintaining its high growth rate as competition increases, uncertainty around achieving full self-driving capabilities, potential delays in the release of the highly anticipated Cybertruck, and the company’s dependence on government subsidies for electric vehicle sales. The author has taken a short position on Tesla by purchasing put options and emphasizes the need for caution when trading options. They advise against investing a significant portion of one’s portfolio in options due to the associated risks. The article underscores the importance of thorough research before making investment decisions.
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Deutsche Bank Is Not Credit Suisse, But It Is Still Deutsche Bank
August 24 2023
Deutsche Bank’s recent Q2 2023 results indicate ongoing challenges. While the bank achieved an 8% RoTE goal in 2022 and reported a strong Q1 profit, its share price hasn’t improved, lagging behind peers. Q2 2023 saw a drop in profitability to a 5.4% RoTE, partly due to selective expense reporting. High costs and underperformance in the Private Bank segment remain concerns. The article suggests that despite appearing undervalued by some metrics, Deutsche Bank trails European peers in profitability and presents uncertainties in its transformation journey and reporting practices, making it less appealing for investors compared to other European banks.
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Siemens Energy: The Right Time For A Contrarian Buy (Rating Upgrade)
August 10 2023
The article analyzes Siemens Energy’s financial performance in Q3 of its fiscal year 2023 and discusses the company’s prospects. Despite anticipated poor financial results due to quality defects and project expenses, the author finds optimism in Siemens Energy’s other segments, such as Gas Services, Grid Technologies, and Transformation of Industry, which are performing well. These segments have generated positive cash flows, helping offset the losses from the wind turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa. The author believes that the current challenging situation presents an opportunity for contrarian investors to consider buying Siemens Energy shares, especially considering the company’s strong balance sheet, liquidity position, and positive potential news that could lead to share price increases. However, the risks of potential write-downs related to Siemens Gamesa’s valuation and ongoing problems with the subsidiary are acknowledged.
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EPAM Systems: AI Could Have A Negative Long-Term Impact On IT Services
July 17 2023
The article discusses the potential impact of generative AI on the IT Services industry. While the industry is currently facing stagnating growth, the author believes that generative AI could disrupt the sector by significantly increasing the efficiency of software engineering. This efficiency improvement could lead to reduced demand for traditional engineering services, affecting companies that heavily rely on such services for revenue. The author highlights that larger IT services providers like EPAM and Accenture could be more vulnerable to this disruption, given their focus on engineering. The article suggests that the effects of generative AI will likely take time to play out, but investors should consider its potential impact in their due diligence. To mitigate these headwinds, IT services companies may need to shift their focus towards design, consulting, and industry-specific capabilities.
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flatexDEGIRO: Q2 Will Likely Show A Further Slow Down
July 6 2023
The author provides an investment thesis for flatexDEGIRO, an online broker. They anticipate that the Q2 2023 earnings will show a further reduction in commission income based on monthly Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) published by the company. The total number of customer transactions, a significant driver of revenue, has decreased by 22.6% in H1 2023 compared to H1 2022. This decline is expected to be partially offset by higher interest income due to ECB interest rate increases. The author confirms a hold rating on the stock due to the lack of growth and the cyclical nature of the online brokerage business. While the company’s Q2 performance indicates stable customer account growth, customer transactions have decreased, and interest income relies on the interest rate environment. The regulatory issues faced by flatexDEGIRO have shown progress, but the author remains cautious. With a forward P/E ratio of around 9x, the author believes the stock is fairly valued considering the risks and lack of compelling growth prospects.
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OMV: Reiterating The Buy Recommendation
July 3 2023
The author provides an investment thesis for OMV, an integrated oil and gas company. Despite a 10% decline in shares since their previous article, the author reaffirms their buy recommendation based on recent developments. OMV published its Q1 2023 results, which showed a decrease in revenue and operating results due to lower energy prices. However, the author expects earnings per share for 2023 to be around €9 and the dividend per share to be between €3-4, resulting in a potential dividend yield of 8-10%. OMV’s clean balance sheet has improved, with net debt declining to €0.6bn and a leverage ratio of 2%. The company has a progressive dividend policy, aiming to increase the regular dividend every year. OMV also announced a positive investment decision on the Neptun Deep gas field, which is expected to significantly contribute to production and has lower production costs compared to existing fields. The author believes that OMV’s focus on shareholder value, sound balance sheet, and low valuation make it an attractive choice for income investors.
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Siemens Energy: Be Careful Buying The Dip, More Problems Could Be Ahead
June 23 2023
Siemens Energy (SMEGF, SMNEY) has issued a profit warning due to additional quality problems and increased costs of €1 billion at its subsidiary Siemens Gamesa. The wind-turbine manufacturer has faced recurring issues with turbine components and abnormal behavior in its installed fleet. I believe Siemens Energy overpaid for Siemens Gamesa, which has been unprofitable for years and carried significant debt. The potential for a significant write-down of goodwill and prolonged quality problems pose risks for Siemens Energy. Despite being well-positioned for the energy transition, the company’s low profit margins and ongoing issues with Siemens Gamesa warrant caution and a hold recommendation for investors.
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Volkswagen And Tesla Are The EV Winners In Europe
June 22 2023
The article suggests that both Volkswagen and Tesla will emerge as winners in the electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly in Europe. I consider Volkswagen to be undervalued and sees potential for an upward revaluation once the market recognizes the success of the EV transformation. They highlight Volkswagen’s strong position in Europe and its diverse portfolio of brands and businesses. On the other hand, Tesla is described as dominating the U.S. market but facing more competition in Europe. The article emphasizes the need for Tesla to adapt to European regulations and overcome challenges in charging infrastructure. Overall, I believe that while Tesla may be overvalued, Volkswagen presents an undervalued investment opportunity with its EV transformation efforts.
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EPAM Systems: We Might Not Have Seen The Bottom (Upgrade To Hold)
June 6 2023
EPAM Systems (NYSE: EPAM) recently lowered its financial outlook for Q2 and full-year 2023 revenue and earnings, causing a 25% drop in shares since the Q1 earnings call. The CEO and CFO expressed optimism for improved customer demand in the coming quarters, but without concrete evidence. The reduced outlook, while not disastrous in absolute terms, highlights the company’s high valuation with a P/E ratio of around 27, indicating expectations of significant future growth. The article recommends waiting for a lower entry point before considering new investments, as EPAM’s management credibility has been undermined by previous predictions of growth that did not materialize.
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thyssenkrupp Does Not Know What Kind Of Company It Wants To Be
June 2 2023
The article discusses the investment prospects of thyssenkrupp, a German holding company primarily involved in steel production. The author expresses hesitation in investing due to past setbacks and uncertainties. They believe thyssenkrupp will likely retain its steel division, relying on public funding for the costly green transformation. The upcoming IPO of its hydrogen subsidiary, Nucera, is seen as potentially diluting shareholder value. The author questions the logic of selling stakes in a promising hydrogen business to fund the struggling steel division. Until the fate of the steel division becomes clear, the author advises against new investments in thyssenkrupp.
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Mercedes-Benz: Vans Strategy Update Adds To The Bull Case
May 30 2023
Mercedes-Benz’s Q1 2023 results were strong, particularly in its Vans division, surpassing the performance of the larger Cars division. The Vans segment achieved significant growth in unit sales, revenue, and profitability, driven by cost reductions, higher sales prices, and a favorable product mix. This success reflects the company’s focus on premium segments, customer loyalty, electric vehicles, and a lower cost base. The Vans division’s profitability now exceeds that of the Cars division, signaling a positive trend for Mercedes-Benz. With its bullish outlook, high profitability, and attractive valuation, Mercedes presents an appealing investment opportunity.
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Lufthansa: Takeover Of ITA Carries Execution Risk, But Makes Strategic Sense
May 30 2023
Lufthansa has reached an agreement with the Italian government to acquire a 41% stake in ITA Airways, the Italian national airline, through a capital increase of 325 million euros. The deal aligns with Lufthansa’s strategy of acquiring financially struggling national airlines. While Lufthansa’s past acquisitions have had mixed results, the consolidation of the European airline industry and limited organic growth opportunities make the ITA takeover strategically sensible. Lufthansa has the option for a full takeover in the future but is not obligated to do so. The airline expects a recovery in demand and capacity in 2023, but investment risks and the current share price suggest caution in new investments in Lufthansa.
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Commerzbank: As Good As It Gets?
May 23 2023
Commerzbank’s Q1 2023 results exceeded expectations, with profit before taxes of 875mn, up 95% YoY. The bank reduced costs and improved its core capital ratio, receiving ECB approval for share buybacks. However, the market reacted negatively, possibly due to issues in the Private and Small Business customer segment and the Polish subsidiary mBank. Commerzbank still lags behind competitors in profitability and efficiency. While Q1 results were positive, net interest income may not improve further, and the bank faces ongoing legal challenges and provisions in Poland. Overall, new investors may find limited upside potential in the mid-term.
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BMW Is Undervalued, But Investors Will Need Patience
May 19 2023
BMW achieved its best-ever annual result in 2022 and strong Q1 numbers, with shares up 50% from their September low. The low forward P/E ratio and high dividend yield indicate an undervalued stock. Despite concerns about the EV transition and macroeconomy, BMW’s focus on the luxury segment and refusal to commit to a combustion engine phase-out date make it stand out. Q1 2023 profit decreased, but BMW plans to increase its EV share and offers a compelling investment with a low valuation, high dividend, and share buybacks. Patient investors can expect long-term rewards as BMW navigates the EV transformation.
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EPAM Systems: Disappointing Q1 Results And Possibly More Pain Ahead (Downgrade To Sell)
May 8 2023
EPAM Systems, a software engineering and IT services company, has announced disappointing Q1 2023 results, with revenue and profitability down quarter on quarter, and only marginally up year on year. The company is waiting for an economic environment to improve, and it has been negatively impacted by a slowdown in demand for digital transformation services. While the company expects the market to recover, it has not provided a specific timeframe. Despite a 60% drop since the end of 2021 and a 10% drop on 6 May, EPAM is still priced for growth with a forward-looking P/E ratio of 29.5 based on its guidance for earnings per share for 2023. However, the stock is too expensive for a company that is not growing, and thus, investors are advised to wait for lower entry points.
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Erste Group Bank: Staying On The Sidelines Despite Good Q1 Results
May 2 2023
Erste Group Bank reported strong Q1 2023 earnings, with net profit rising 14.7% QoQ to €594m ($703m), while YoY growth was 32.3%. Net interest income rose by 27.1%, while the cost/income ratio came in below 50% at 49.7%. Cost discipline has improved, although the bank lags some peers. Loan growth slowed due to weak corporate demand, but solid deposit inflows demonstrated the strength of the Erste Bank brand in the CEE region. The bank reported a net interest margin of 2.5% for Q1 2023, with a trend showing an upward trend over the last quarters. The bank said it was targeting the upper end of its RoTE guidance of 13-15%, but the author said the bank needed positive momentum to rise above the €20-€40 ($24-$47) range that it has traded in for more than a decade.
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Porsche AG: Record Deliveries Again In Q1 After A Strong Fiscal 2022
Apr. 21 2023
Porsche AG has reported its record results for the fiscal year 2022, along with a strong guidance for 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, Porsche delivered 80,767 cars, marking a record number and an increase of 18.6% YoY. The company delivered in all of its five global delivery regions including Germany, Europe w/o Germany, North America, China, Overseas and Emerging Markets. However, Porsche sold fewer electric vehicles compared to the previous year. In 2022, its Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share had dropped to 11.3% from 13.3% in 2021, which again decreased in Q1 2023. Porsche has only one BEV model, the Taycan, at present. The company has confirmed all medium and long-term targets, with the expectation that it will increase sales and profit to exceed its 2023 guidance.
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Porsche AG: Record Deliveries Again In Q1 After A Strong Fiscal 2022
Apr. 21 2023
Porsche AG has reported its record results for the fiscal year 2022, along with a strong guidance for 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, Porsche delivered 80,767 cars, marking a record number and an increase of 18.6% YoY. The company delivered in all of its five global delivery regions including Germany, Europe w/o Germany, North America, China, Overseas and Emerging Markets. However, Porsche sold fewer electric vehicles compared to the previous year. In 2022, its Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share had dropped to 11.3% from 13.3% in 2021, which again decreased in Q1 2023. Porsche has only one BEV model, the Taycan, at present. The company has confirmed all medium and long-term targets, with the expectation that it will increase sales and profit to exceed its 2023 guidance.
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Porsche AG: Record Deliveries Again In Q1 After A Strong Fiscal 2022
Apr. 21 2023
Porsche AG has reported its record results for the fiscal year 2022, along with a strong guidance for 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, Porsche delivered 80,767 cars, marking a record number and an increase of 18.6% YoY. The company delivered in all of its five global delivery regions including Germany, Europe w/o Germany, North America, China, Overseas and Emerging Markets. However, Porsche sold fewer electric vehicles compared to the previous year. In 2022, its Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share had dropped to 11.3% from 13.3% in 2021, which again decreased in Q1 2023. Porsche has only one BEV model, the Taycan, at present. The company has confirmed all medium and long-term targets, with the expectation that it will increase sales and profit to exceed its 2023 guidance.
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Porsche AG: Record Deliveries Again In Q1 After A Strong Fiscal 2022
Apr. 21 2023
Porsche AG has reported its record results for the fiscal year 2022, along with a strong guidance for 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, Porsche delivered 80,767 cars, marking a record number and an increase of 18.6% YoY. The company delivered in all of its five global delivery regions including Germany, Europe w/o Germany, North America, China, Overseas and Emerging Markets. However, Porsche sold fewer electric vehicles compared to the previous year. In 2022, its Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share had dropped to 11.3% from 13.3% in 2021, which again decreased in Q1 2023. Porsche has only one BEV model, the Taycan, at present. The company has confirmed all medium and long-term targets, with the expectation that it will increase sales and profit to exceed its 2023 guidance.
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Porsche AG: Record Deliveries Again In Q1 After A Strong Fiscal 2022
Apr. 21 2023
Porsche AG has reported its record results for the fiscal year 2022, along with a strong guidance for 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, Porsche delivered 80,767 cars, marking a record number and an increase of 18.6% YoY. The company delivered in all of its five global delivery regions including Germany, Europe w/o Germany, North America, China, Overseas and Emerging Markets. However, Porsche sold fewer electric vehicles compared to the previous year. In 2022, its Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share had dropped to 11.3% from 13.3% in 2021, which again decreased in Q1 2023. Porsche has only one BEV model, the Taycan, at present. The company has confirmed all medium and long-term targets, with the expectation that it will increase sales and profit to exceed its 2023 guidance.
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AUTO1 Has Been Beaten Down, I Think It Is A Buy Now
Apr. 17 2023
The AUTO1 Group is an online used car dealer operating in Europe, offering a similar business model to Carvana. Unlike Carvana, AUTO1 has a solid balance sheet and has not been involved in any scandals or illegal practices. The company has increased gross profit every year except for the pandemic year of 2020. AUTO1 operates in the Merchant and Retail segments, and has managed to increase its market share to 2.5% of the European used car market. Despite the decline in the size of the total used car market, AUTO1 has continuously increased gross profit. However, AUTO1 is still a high-risk investment, and the development of the European used car market regarding pricing and unit sales is the big unknown. The key question is whether the company has a business model that will lead to profitability, and when. The company has forecasted EBITDA profitability in Q4 2023 and has been upholding this prediction since the IPO.
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flatexDEGIRO: It Could Get Worse Before It Gets Better
Apr. 6 2023
The future of flatexDEGIRO’s growth vision looks bleak. Although the company achieved exceptional growth rates during the pandemic, it is now falling short of growth rates required to meet its ambitious vision. The article suggests that the negative growth in executed transactions may be a problem for flatexDEGIRO’s revenue and profit in the future, which rely heavily on transaction volume. Despite a P/E ratio of 9.3 based on (adjusted) 2022 earnings per share of EUR 0.72, the company’s shares are not cheap and may be priced fairly as a specialty financial services company. In January, flatexDEGIRO’s direct competitor, Trade Republic, announced a departure from the long-standing practice that direct brokers do not pay interest on deposits, causing more competition for flatexDEGIRO’s uninvested customer deposits.
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OMV: Double-Digit Dividend Yield And Better Financials Than Larger Peers
Apr. 5 2023
Austrian mineral oil company OMV, which last year decided to actively transition away from oil and gas exploration to chemicals and recycling through its Strategy 2030, has reported strong 2022 numbers with sales and profit almost doubling YoY. OMV has a double-digit dividend yield of over 11% and should maintain the payout level during the transformation over the next few years. The company’s net debt is only €2.2bn ($2.47bn), just 8% of the total capital employed. OMV’s exceptionally clean balance sheet means that investors who think value is about buying cash flow at a low price should consider it, while those who think that oil and gas companies should transition to green energy may not find OMV to be the right investment option.
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EPAM Systems: Return To Growth Could Take Longer Than Expected
Mar. 27 2023
EPAM Systems, which provides digital engineering and software development services, has relied heavily on Belarus, Russia and Ukraine as delivery locations, leading to a slowdown in its growth, which may take longer than expected to recover, according to Seeking Alpha. While the company has managed the disruptions, including relocating over 10,000 employees to new locations, demand for IT services has been slowing down. EPAM has shown strong growth over the past decade, and ranked four times as the top IT services company on Fortune’s 100 Fastest Growing Companies list. Its shares have fallen 60% from their high in 2021, but still trade with a GAAP P/E ratio of more than 30, based on projected 2023 earnings, which suggests that there is still an expectation of significant future growth. I advise investors to wait until Q1 or Q2 earnings and forward guidance confirm that EPAM has managed to restart growth before investing.
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BAWAG Group: An Undervalued, Highly Profitable Retail Bank With A Low-Risk Profile
Mar. 20 2023
BAWAG Group is a banking group in Austria that has been unfairly affected by the recent turmoil in the global banking industry. BAWAG Group is a well-capitalized, highly profitable bank with a low-risk profile and a RoTCE of 18.6%. With a CET1 ratio of 13.5%, the bank has excess capital that can be used for share buybacks or acquisitions. Its NPL ratio is low at 0.9%, and the bank expects risk costs in 2023 to be between 20 and 25bps. BAWAG has a fortress, safe and secure balance sheet, and 73% of its business is in the DACH region and the Netherlands. Despite a legal dispute with the City of Linz, BAWAG announced strong 2022 results and accelerated its 2025 mid-term targets to 2023, with a forward-looking P/E ratio of 6.5 and a forward-looking dividend yield of 9%.
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Porsche Holding: What To Look For In Volkswagen And Porsche Earnings
Mar. 06 2023
Porsche Automobil Holding SE is undervalued despite a discount of €17.2bn ($18.8bn) on net asset value, almost equal to its market capitalisation. It owns a 53.33% stake in Volkswagen AG and 12.5% of Dr Ing hc F Porsche AG, which makes sports cars. Volkswagen last week announced a record annual dividend of €8.7 ($9.5) per share, which will translate into a payout of €1.37bn for Porsche Holding next year. Volkswagen has given an optimistic guidance for 2023, and the increased cash flow should continue. There is no short-term trigger for the NAV discount to narrow, but cash flows from Volkswagen and Porsche are increasing.
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Erste Bank Group: Unfulfilled Eastern Promises
Mar. 01 2023
Erste Group Bank, a leading Austrian bank, has posted strong results for 2022, with optimistic guidance for the coming year. However, the bank’s shares are still trading at a relatively low valuation compared to its European peers. While the stock has seen an increase of 67% since August 2022 and 20% year-to-date, it is still within a range of between 15 and 40 euro where it has traded for over a decade, leading to limited positive runway for the bank. Erste Bank Group is one of the largest financial services providers in Central and Eastern Europe and has a strong deposit base that has been an advantage in the rising interest rate environment.
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flatexDEGIRO: 2026 Growth Vision Is Unlikely To Happen
Feb. 28 2023
German online brokerage flatexDEGIRO’s target to achieve 7-8 million customer accounts by 2026 is unlikely to be realised, according to an article by Seeking Alpha. The company, which had 2.44 million customer accounts as of January 2023, has only managed to grow at a rate of 30% CAGR during the exceptional pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Growth has slowed, with customer account growth of just 16.3% YoY. However, I still think that the stock is relatively cheap, and there may be some upside to the share price.
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Siemens Energy: No Quick Turnaround For The Renewable Business In Sight, Sell
Feb. 9 2023
Siemens Energy, the German engineering conglomerate, may struggle to turn around its renewable business, Siemens Gamesa, any time soon, according to Seeking Alpha. The report claims that the company overpaid for Siemens Gamesa, having bought a 25.6% stake in the firm for €3.15bn ($3.66bn) to gain full control. Furthermore, as a result of quality problems, Siemens Gamesa made an operating loss before special items of €760m for the first quarter of its 2022/23 fiscal year, resulting in Siemens Energy cutting its earnings forecast. The acquisition of Siemens Gamesa is seen as critical to Siemens Energy’s ability to benefit from the ongoing energy transition……
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A Comparison Of The German Premium Auto Manufacturers And Tesla
Feb. 20 2023
I consider BMW and Mercedes as quality stocks with a low valuation, and believes they will thrive in the EV world as they have done previously. I am personally long on Mercedes due to its focused strategy and execution of the EV transformation. Volkswagen/Audi is considered a turnaround story with a low valuation, despite its complicated corporate structure. I appreciate Tesla’s innovation in establishing an alternative to the polluting internal combustion engine, but does not invest in the stock due to its high valuation and volatility. The article cautions readers about the risks associated with investing in securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange.
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Raiffeisen Bank International: Strong 2022 Results Confirm Buy Recommendation
Feb. 6 2023
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) has posted strong 2022 results, with a YoY increase in consolidated profit for the group of 164% to €3.6bn, including a one-time gain of €453m from the sale of its Bulgarian subsidiary. Without the one-time gain, the YoY increase would have been 131%. Net interest income increased by 52% and net fee and commission income rose 95%. Despite RBI performing well across all markets, the contribution from Russia, a market the bank is considering exiting, was significant. RBI continues to say that it is exercising caution despite the strong financial results.
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AT&S: PCB And IC Substrate Manufacturer To Bet On A Semiconductor Rebound
Jan. 25 2023
Austria-based Advanced Technologies and Solutions (AT&S), a leading manufacturer of high-end printed circuit boards and integrated circuit substrates, is well-positioned to benefit from a rebound in the semiconductor market. The company has expanded its manufacturing capacity significantly over the past decade and is the only IC substrate manufacturer in Europe, which makes it a potential beneficiary of the upcoming EU chips act. AT&S is a technology leader with 600 active patents and the #2 producer of high-end PCBs and the #5 producer of IC substrates worldwide. Its recent half-year financial results showed YoY revenue growth of 53%, surpassing €1bn ($1.14bn).
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Siemens Energy Might Be Well Positioned To Profit From Energy Transformation
Jan. 18 2023
Siemens Energy has a unique range of services in the energy sector, giving it a leading market position in low- and zero-emission power-generation, as well as transport and storage of energy. With over 100 GW installed wind-turbine capacity, it is also the number one provider outside of China in offshore wind and number three in onshore wind. Siemens Energy is also poised to benefit from a need for increased electricity infrastructure as more combustion engine cars are replaced with electric vehicles. However, the company did not have a good year in 2022 due to losses at Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, causing the cancellation of dividends for the year. Siemens Energy will have to increase its profit margins and turn around Siemens Gamesa for a positive investment thesis to work out.
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Buy Porsche Holding Instead Of Porsche AG Directly
Jan. 10 2023
Porsche Automobil Holding SE (POAHF) has a complex ownership structure, which has resulted in a discount to its share price and that of Volkswagen AG (VWAGY). In September 2022, Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG (DRPRY) was floated, adding complexity and further discounts. Porsche Holding SE controls Volkswagen, owning a majority 53.33% of Volkswagen AG ordinary shares and 31.4% of its total capital. This means Porsche Holding is a cheaper alternative investment to Porsche AG. Porsche Holding owns both Volkswagen and Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG, with over 99% of its assets in core holdings. Its portfolio holdings are relatively small, so are not discussed in relation to the firm’s valuation.
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Volkswagen: New CEO Is Taking The Right Steps On Software
Jan. 3 2023
Volkswagen’s new CEO, Oliver Blume, is taking action to address the company’s software challenges, which have seen it fall behind rivals such as Tesla and Chinese manufacturers. In particular, Blume is focusing on delivering value and features quickly and iteratively, cancelling large and under-delivered initiatives, and developing unique software for the Chinese market locally. However, recent mistakes have been costly, including the wasted investment in autonomous driving technology joint venture Argo AI, and the costly Trinity project to develop a new electric car platform that was cancelled in November. Despite this, the risk/reward ratio for investors is currently compelling.
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2022
flatexDEGIRO: Don't Buy The Long-Term Growth Story
Dec. 20 2022
FlatexDEGIRO, a European retail online broker, may not be a long-term growth story despite being viewed as one by many analysts. Its revenue is heavily reliant on the number of transactions on its platform, which increased significantly during the pandemic. While there is a possibility of a short-term “bounce-back trade” following the company’s recent negative BaFin audit, investors may be buying a low-growth and cyclical business in the long term. FlatexDEGIRO generates most of its income from customers trading on its platform, which provides three levers for growth: existing customers trading more, more money per trade, and adding more customers who trade. However, none of these options provide evidence of long-term growth potential.
Summary created by ChatGPT
Raiffeisen Bank International: A Contrarian View On A Bank With Significant Russia Exposure
Dec. 7 2022
Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) has experienced a 60% decline in share price following the Ukrainian conflict. The bank is headquartered in Austria and is primarily focused on the Central and Eastern European markets. Despite the geopolitical events impacting the share price, both the revenue and income have improved significantly, with a 42% increase in net interest income and a 99% increase in net commission income. The share price may not recover until there is a resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, but investors who are patient could be rewarded with the potential for the share price to double.
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Porsche AG: Record Deliveries Again In Q1 After A Strong Fiscal 2022
Apr. 21 2023
Porsche AG has reported its record results for the fiscal year 2022, along with a strong guidance for 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, Porsche delivered 80,767 cars, marking a record number and an increase of 18.6% YoY. The company delivered in all of its five global delivery regions including Germany, Europe w/o Germany, North America, China, Overseas and Emerging Markets. However, Porsche sold fewer electric vehicles compared to the previous year. In 2022, its Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share had dropped to 11.3% from 13.3% in 2021, which again decreased in Q1 2023. Porsche has only one BEV model, the Taycan, at present. The company has confirmed all medium and long-term targets, with the expectation that it will increase sales and profit to exceed its 2023 guidance.
Summary created by ChatGPT
Porsche AG: Record Deliveries Again In Q1 After A Strong Fiscal 2022
Apr. 21 2023
Porsche AG has reported its record results for the fiscal year 2022, along with a strong guidance for 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, Porsche delivered 80,767 cars, marking a record number and an increase of 18.6% YoY. The company delivered in all of its five global delivery regions including Germany, Europe w/o Germany, North America, China, Overseas and Emerging Markets. However, Porsche sold fewer electric vehicles compared to the previous year. In 2022, its Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) share had dropped to 11.3% from 13.3% in 2021, which again decreased in Q1 2023. Porsche has only one BEV model, the Taycan, at present. The company has confirmed all medium and long-term targets, with the expectation that it will increase sales and profit to exceed its 2023 guidance.
Summary created by ChatGPT